Can Weber pull a VCU?

A friend recently texted me the following: "Can Weber State pull a VCU next year?" In other words, can Weber State make it to the NCAA Tournament and win some games? To be honest, I have been more concerned with whether or not Weber will win the Big Sky Tournament next year and win the automatic berth. But the more I got thinking about my friend's text, the more entertained I became with the question. And so I began making comparisons to what I think may be Weber State's main players next year to VCU's top nine players this year. I found a lot of similarities. (These comparisons are assuming a few things about next years WSU roster 1-WSU starting five will be LIllard, KBull, Bamforth, Mahoney, and Tresnak and 2- The next four players to significantly contribute will be Otis, Porter, Fulton, and JRich)

Sr. Leadership Out of VCU's best five players, four are seniors, and the fifth is a Jr.

WSU will likely start two seniors and three juniors next year. However, two of the juniors, Lillard and Bamforth, would be seniors next year if it weren't for inuries.

Height VCU's two tallest players to contribute significant minutes to the team are 6'9". The average height of the nine players who play the most minutes is 6'5".

Of the nine players I mentioned above, Weber's tallest two are Tresnak at 6'10" and Mahoney at 6'8" (Though I wouldn't be surprised if red-shirt freshmen James Hajek at 6'10" plays a bunch of minutes next year too). The average height of Weber's nine players I listed above, like VCU, is 6'5".

Shooting With no one over 6'9", VCU has had to find success shooting the ball to continue upsetting teams. As the NCAA Tournament has gone on, I imagine VCU's hot shooting has been no surprise to VCU fans. They have three players who shoot better than 40% from three-point range and have a team average of 37% three-point shooting. Their free throw percentage as a team is also adequate at 71%.

Weber is returning three players who averaged 43% accuracy from behind the arc, including the nation's top three-point percentage shooter in Jr., Scott Bamforth. Also, it is likely that Damian Lillard will be shooting around 40% from down-town as well. This year the cats three-point average as a team was 41%. They were also very good at their free throws, making nearly 75% of attempts from the line.

Schedule The main difference I found when looking at the two teams was the difference in their schedules. The best teams Weber currently has scheduled for next year include, San Jose State, Cal, Utah State, and BYU. This year VCU played and beat four NCAA tournament teams -- Old Dominion, UCLA, Richmond, and Wofford. VCU also played Tennessee and Wake Forrest. In my opinion, VCU's schedule is much more difficult this year than Weber's looks for next. If Weber wants to get a good seed in the NCAA tournament next year they need to beat their non-conference opponents and hope that most of them also make the tournament.

That's the extent to the comparisons I made.

One more point. The three things you always hear that contribute to success in the NCAA tournament are 1-Sr. leadership 2. Guard play, and 3. Depth. Weber will have all of these next year. Sr. leadership will come from seniors Bullinger and Mahoney, joined by kind-of seniors LIllard and Bamforth. The guard play will obviously come from NBA prospect Lillard and three-point shooting ace, Scott Bamforth. (Jordan Richardson and KBull are two excellent guards as well). It appears like Weber has the depth to compete as well. This year three freshmen played significant minutes, and from all accounts I've heard, transfer Frank Otis will be a great player as well (maybe even a starter).

All this speculation and comparison is a lot of fun to do. And watching teams like Butler and VCU make it to the Final Four gives me a lot of hope for next year's Wildcat squad as well. But when it's all said and done, what matters the most is that the 'Cats make it to and take care of business during the Big Sky Tournament, something they have failed to do in the last three years. But then again, they have never had a team like the one that they will have next year.

Diamian's Diary

The Big Sky Conference has been doing a video diary on Damian Lillard's recovery from foot surgery. As I understand it, they have given him access to a Flip camcorder for him to document the recovery. Every once in a while they collect the camcorder and produce a new chapter in the series. Here is a link to Part 2 of the saga. Great Job, Big Sky, and thanks for doing this! We hope to see more stuff like it in the future.